23 November 2008

Here's how you know that the economy is really in trouble: Rich cut back on payments to mistresses.

21 November 2008

I'm sure all who attended last week's wedding would agree that it was absolutely lovely. I'm also happy to report that an esteemed (some might say notorious) member of our proctor group had her wedding the same day, according to this announcement in the New York Times. I hope no one got conflicting invitations.
I can't put it any better than Dave once did: other authors of this blog (and certain other regular readers), mark your calendars for August 22, 2009.

07 November 2008

So what's going on with Alaska? The polls were 15% off and the number of ballots cast is 15% less than in 2004. Sounds fishy to me. (More info here.)

06 November 2008

It's looking like Omaha might come through and make my prediction right!

05 November 2008

Topic for discussion: should Larry Summers be the next Secretary of the Treasury?

(It's hard to believe that I've already met two high-ranking cabinet members in my uneventful life. Summers was one. The other was the Secretary of Defense under the first President Bush. What was that guy's name again?)
Looks like my Senate prediction was too optimistic. Seriously, there must be something in the water in Alaska. On the other hand, Obama could appoint Specter or Snowe to the cabinet and flip a seat.

The Onion, as usual, is spot on.

No, really, I'm happy. In fact, for the first time in my adult life I can honestly say I'm proud to be an American. This will make living abroad a whole lot easier.
None of us hit the number 364 exactly (I'm assuming NC and IN will go to Obama and MO to McCain). But no one else did, either.
I finally went to bed around 1:30 am, waiting in vain for some results from IN, MO, NC, MT. Or the senate races in Alaska or Minnesota. Turns out that I didn't miss too much. (IN, though...crazy!)

For some reason, as I went to bed after following this crazy campaign for two years, that line from Macbeth came to mind: "After life's fitful fever he sleeps well."

Anyway, today's analysis is going to be a lot more fun than the postmortem from last time. (Scroll down for the good stuff.) Although this post now seems smugly prescient. Yes indeed.

04 November 2008

You really asked for my predictions?

Obama wins the Kerry states + IA, CO, NM, VA, but loses PA, giving him 265 EV. Franken loses in MN because the third party candidate pulls 25%, almost all of which is the "kick-the-bum-out" vote. (Robby shares this prediction.) Prop 8 wins because polling underestimates support for gay-marriage bans. Dems have 57 Senate seats after Lieberman defects.

I may not be right, but at least I won't be disappointed. :)
Lest anyone be tempted, the fabulous Nate Silver has 10 reasons why you should ignore exit polls today.
Nat = Karl Rove + NC - OH.

I'm less optimistic about NC now that I bothered to check the weather, where I see there is rain in the Democratic part of NC and no rain in the Republican part. There is also rain all over VA but I don't think VA voters will be affected as much by the rain as NC voters.

The only other parts of the country where rain might play a factor are Denver and Philly, but I don't think it's raining in either place yet.
In rough summary (ignoring the 10th circuit where Alec and I agree anyway).

Nat = Alec + (FL-OH) + 2 more states (FL and NC)
Noah = Nat + 3 more states (OH and then IN/MO and GA/MT/ND)

03 November 2008

Are you trying to get us to bet on this? Count me out! I'm declining to talk about any races where my judge might hear an appeal, so that means nothing on Utah, Colorado, NM, Oklahoma, Kansas, or Wyoming. I'm giving Obama 5.5 points nationwide.

As for the rest of the relevant states, here are my predictions:

Obama wins:
New Hampshire
North Carolina
(Garnering 319 EV, not counting 10th circuit states)

McCain wins:
West Virginia
(Garnering 184 EV, not counting 10th circuit states)

As for the Senate, I predict Dem pickups in NC, OR, AK, and VA. I'm also guessing Prop 8 goes down in a nail-biter.
And here's my prediction: Obama by 5%. 311 electoral votes. OH but not FL; VA but not NC. IN, MO, GA, MT, ND all go to McCain. And yes, we should know by 8:45, although the networks probably won't call it until 11:01 or so. 59 Senate seats for the Dems.

Nat, Dave, what about you? Care to make it interesting?
With the election only a few hours away, I thought I'd share some of my favorite thoughts about Barack Obama, courtesy of the noted pundit R. W. Emerson:
History is full, down to this day, of the imbecility of kings and governors. They are a class of persons much to be pitied, for they know not what they should do. The weavers strike for bread, and the king and his ministers, not knowing what to do, meet them with bayonets. But Obama understood his business. Here was a man who, in each moment and emergency, knew what to do next. It is an immense comfort and refreshment to the spirits, not only of kings, but of citizens. Few men have any next; they live from hand to mouth, without a plan, and are ever at the end of their line, and, after each action, wait for an impulse from abroad...As he is, Obama inspires confidence and vigor by the extraordinary unity of his action...His victories were only so many doors, and he never for a moment lost sight of his way forward, in the dazzle and uproar of the present circumstance. He knew what to do, and he flew at his mark...

We cannot in the universal imbecility, indecision, and indolence of men, sufficiently congratulate ourselves on this strong and ready actor, who took Occasion by the beard, and showed us how much may be accomplished by the mere force of such virtues as all men possess in less degrees; namely, by punctuality, by personal attention, by courage, and thoroughness.
The original text can be found here.
After a long long campaign season, it's prediction time. Here's mine. Obama by 7 in the popular vote. Electoral vote either 375 or 379. Kerry states + IA, NM, CO, VA, OH, NV + all but one of FL, IN, NC, MO + one of GA, MT, ND, Omaha. If I have to pick exactly one scenario I'll go with MO as the loss above and GA as the win. Senate pickups in VA, NM, CO, NH, OR, AK, NC, MN, with GA going into a runoff. Time when we'll know the presidential election is over: around 8:45EST when VA and OH are called. The close races keeping us up at night: MN Senate and Prop 8, both of which will come down to a couple points.

01 November 2008

I was really looking forward to Halloween this year. I finally live in a neighborhood where parents let their children go trick-or-threating, and I had a perfect costume idea: John Stockton. Then the wheels came off. Incomprehensibly, there were no John Stockton jerseys in my size in any sporting goods store in town or on ebay, so no costume for me. Then I bought $30 worth of candy because I thought there would be tons of trick-or-treaters given the region's robust fertility rate. Alas, it rained, and I had something like five or six groups of kids. Now I'm stuck with a LOT of candy; luckily this stuff never goes bad.