Two comments on the election:

a) my final prediction turned out to be right in 49/50 states. I had bush in IO, NM, NV. I had Kerry in WI, NH... I even had bush in FL. I had bush in the popular vote. But i got the one important state wrong.

b) my prediction on the story of why bush won the election is that white married women don't read the news, they thought that saddam was behind 9/11 and they voted for bush but wouldn't admit it to pollsters. That explains why the exit polls were wrong and why the gender gap narrowed so much accross all states.

UPDATE: I tried to dig up the survey results on the gender gap and those who follow the news closely, and on the gender gap and being misinformed about Iraq (were there WMD, 9/11-Iraq connections, etc.). If I recall correctly they were two seperate surveys. The only thing I could find was just in minnesota, and there women were only about 5% worse than men on the 9/11-saddam connection, but in Minnessotta the gender gap was pretty good for Kerry. At any rate, until I can find the numbers on this prediction b) should just be taken as based on my own faulty memory.