At this point, I'm inclined to think that Harriet Miers is doomed. Here's the clincher: John Fund of the Wall Street Journal reports that the White House arranged for a conference call on October 3 between a group of prominent religious conservatives and two of Mier's close friends—including Justice Nathan Hecht—who basically guaranteed that Miers would vote to overturn Roe v. Wade.
Obviously, this is pretty sleazy, but consider the practical consequences. If this turns out to be true, it will be politically impossible for any Democrat to vote for Miers. This means that she won't even get out of committee. The senate Judiciary Committee has eight Democrats and ten Republicans, which means that only a couple of Republican nays will swing the vote against her—and I'd be really surprised if she got nine or ten Republican votes. After that, even if she gets to the full Senate, it will be easy for conservative Republicans to vote against Miers without political consequences—which is exactly what will happen.
Anyway, it's going to be a really, really interesting couple of months. I've become a Miers junkie, and those guys at the National Review are just feeding my habit.
17 October 2005
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