I don't think I'm going to be doing my usual play-by-play of the Oscars this year, but I thought I'd post my predictions:

Best Picture: Crash
Best Director: Ang Lee
Best Actor: Philip Seymour Hoffmann
Best Actress: Reese Witherspoon
Best Supporting Actor: George Clooney
Best Supporting Actress: Rachel Wiesz
Best Original Screenplay: Crash
Best Adapted Screenplay: Brokeback Mountain

If this list of predictions seems slightly boring, it's because it is. This is another year when conventional wisdom will win out.