03 November 2008

After a long long campaign season, it's prediction time. Here's mine. Obama by 7 in the popular vote. Electoral vote either 375 or 379. Kerry states + IA, NM, CO, VA, OH, NV + all but one of FL, IN, NC, MO + one of GA, MT, ND, Omaha. If I have to pick exactly one scenario I'll go with MO as the loss above and GA as the win. Senate pickups in VA, NM, CO, NH, OR, AK, NC, MN, with GA going into a runoff. Time when we'll know the presidential election is over: around 8:45EST when VA and OH are called. The close races keeping us up at night: MN Senate and Prop 8, both of which will come down to a couple points.

2 comments:

Dave said...

You optimist you. Didn't you see the NYtimes article about liberals not feeling happy about being ahead?

Noah said...

I don't think I'm even being that optimistic. The optimistic scenario is what you get if you think missing cell phones are really causing a big polling problem. See this post for the optimistic scenario:
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/final_update_on_the_cell_phone.php