Are you trying to get us to bet on this? Count me out! I'm declining to talk about any races where my judge might hear an appeal, so that means nothing on Utah, Colorado, NM, Oklahoma, Kansas, or Wyoming. I'm giving Obama 5.5 points nationwide.

As for the rest of the relevant states, here are my predictions:

Obama wins:
Nevada
Minnesota
Iowa
Wisconsin
Michigan
New Hampshire
Pennsylvania
Virginia
North Carolina
Florida
(Garnering 319 EV, not counting 10th circuit states)

McCain wins:
Arizona
Missouri
Arkansas
Georgia
West Virginia
Ohio
Indiana
(Garnering 184 EV, not counting 10th circuit states)

As for the Senate, I predict Dem pickups in NC, OR, AK, and VA. I'm also guessing Prop 8 goes down in a nail-biter.