Nat = Karl Rove + NC - OH.

I'm less optimistic about NC now that I bothered to check the weather, where I see there is rain in the Democratic part of NC and no rain in the Republican part. There is also rain all over VA but I don't think VA voters will be affected as much by the rain as NC voters.

The only other parts of the country where rain might play a factor are Denver and Philly, but I don't think it's raining in either place yet.