Noah, regarding your request for state-by-state poll numbers, I don't think there's anyone doing that this early on except for the bush people, because it's real expensive and so prone to change. The most recent CBS-NY Times poll, though, has some remarkable statistics -- namely, less than one in five Americans think their tax burden has been relieved under Bush, and the highest disapproval ratings of any sitting first-term president (at this point in his tenure) in the past 25 years. These things change, however, and we'll see what people think after the state of the union address.

Another electoral possibility to think about: Bob Graham is the Democratic VP selection. This former two-term Governor and senior senator is enormously popular throughout the state, much more popular than the Bushes. Despite the troubles of the Florida state democratic party, let's not forget how many Floridians voted for Gore four years ago. I think Graham would have to make the Democrat the favorite in Florida.